Trying to Make Sense of it All

• Posted by Robert Sinn
• on September 27th, 2011

Today’s rally ($SPY) up until 2:15pm felt weak and lacked broad based conviction (anyone notice that energy is flat on its ass? $OIH $XLE) – a rising wedge formed ($ES_F) which is almost always bearish, and we fell out of it with force during the final 90 minutes of trading:

 

The fractal chart of $ES_F below comes courtesy of @FractalTrades, here is a quote from FractalTrades: “Yellow arcs are the golden ratio. Target is on fib confluence of both fans and arcs. Also, trend is following the fan from July 8 high!”:

 

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is now making lower highs and lower lows:

 

$XLF tried to break out of its falling wedge today, however, it failed at the downtrend line and closed back below the 20-day EMA:

 

Perhaps it is better to say that XLF is in a bear channel on the 60-minute and failed on a test of the upper edge of the downtrending channel today:

 

$BAC is, well…..BAC:

 

$GS remains in a significant downtrend as rallies have been short lived and have been consistently met with aggressive selling:

 

$GS 60-minute remains in a downtrending channel:

 

$JPM looks almost identical to the XLF daily chart:

 

$WFC is one of the strongest of the financials, it appears that Mr. Buffett has probably been a consistent buyer below 23 over the past several weeks:

 

Make no mistake, silver is broken. However, that does not mean it can’t sustain violent, short lived rallies such as the one it managed to pull off during the past 24 hours. The overnight rally failed at previous support after some buy stops were triggered above $33. I expect a violent consolidation between 30-33 over the coming days before $SI_F retests the low 26s:

 

This market is still in the “meat grinder” as it thrashes around between SPX 1120-1220, odds slightly favor a downside bias. However, at the end of the day until SPX 1100 is decisively penetrated it is still just a big messy range.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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